The Celtics are now the Poor Man’s Warriors, and that’s a Beautiful, Beautiful Thing
Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens’ vision for the C’s is starting to become clear, and it looks an awful lot like the NBA’s biggest powerhouse.
Jae Crowder. Jaylen Brown. Jayson Tatum. Semi Ojeleye. Guerschon Yabusele. Gordon Hayward. All six are listed between 6'6" and 6'8". They can all conceivably play and defend multiple positions. They can all knock down a 3-point shot. And they are all Boston Celtics. Three of the six: Tatum, Ojeleye, and Hayward, were either drafted or signed by the team this summer. They will replace outgoing free agents Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, and Jonas Jerebko; one-dimensional bigs who, while useful, lack the physical tools to be anything beyond spot-up shooters and rebounders. This roster overhaul can easily be misinterpreted as a logjam at a single position:
But that mindset is selling the value of those players short. This is an era of positionless basketball — versatility and shooting mean more in today’s NBA than ever, and Celtics President and General Manager Danny Ainge is molding his team’s roster accordingly. While his biggest star remains 5'9" Isaiah Thomas, a scoring prodigy who can’t defend a lick, it will ultimately be the depth and athleticism at the wing and forward positions that decide how successful the team will be.
The league’s future was set into motion by the excellence of the Golden State Warriors, who went 16–1 in the 2017 playoffs without a competent traditional big man on their roster. The bulk of their total playing time was instead given to the likes of 6'11" basketball mutant Kevin Durant, 6'7" Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green, 6'7" 3-and-D extraordinaire Klay Thompson, 6'6" LeBron James kryptonite Andre Iguodala, and 6'7" rookie Patrick McCaw. Four of those five made at least 36% of their 3-pointers in the playoffs, and all of them wreaked havoc defensively. Durant, especially, made opposing bigs look like G-Leaguers on both ends of the floor with sequences like this:
Ainge can forget about the Celtics ever being as talented as the Warriors. But he can, and has begun to, embrace Golden State’s philosophy of how to win basketball games and mold the Celtics with that precedent in mind. Several years from now, when the Warriors finally cease to be the class of the NBA, Boston will be in a favorable position to take up their mantle.
Wunderkind head coach Brad Stevens already used a prototype of this philosophy in the playoffs. Down 2–0 in a first round series against the Chicago Bulls, Stevens replaced 6'9" big Amir Johnson in the starting lineup with 6'7" wing Gerald Green. The Celtics won the next four games and the series, largely in part to Chicago’s inability to adjust to Green’s speed and shooting ability at the power forward position.
Stevens now has two new wings to utilize in Gordon Hayward and Jayson Tatum, both exponentially more talented than Green. An infantile 19-years-old, Tatum was Boston’s Golden Goose of the 2017 draft; and while time will tell how successful he becomes in the NBA, he has already generated buzz with his play in Summer League (take that for what it’s worth). Hayward, on the other hand, is a proven All-Star talent whose addition vindicates Isaiah Thomas from being the team’s only dependable shot creator. In an offense already built around center Al Horford screening from the high post, Hayward‘s transition from the Utah Jazz to the Celtics should be seamless.
Taking on Hayward’s max contract means a key Celtic role player has to be dealt away, and Jae Crowder is a viable candidate. If he stays, however, he projects to start alongside Hayward at the other forward position. The emergence of Crowder as a viable role player is one of the biggest triumph of Coach Stevens’ young career. He was acquired from Dallas as an afterthought in the Rajon Rondo trade, and while Rondo was a disaster for the Mavericks, Crowder has been a revelation for the Celtics. He’s developed into a hard nosed, multi-faceted defensive player, and is now in the 87th percentile of spot-up shooters in the NBA according to Synergy. Moreover, he is owed only $7 million per year through 2020, roughly half of what his abilities would command on the open market.
Then there’s Jaylen Brown, the rawest and most athletic of Boston’s four primary “small forwards”. He was the third pick in the 2016 draft, the same position Tatum was selected at a year later. The two will likely spend the bulk of next season coming off the bench, and they present the Celtics with two polarizing, yet equally appetizing skill sets. While Tatum is a silky smooth, polished scorer who tends to take plays off on defense; Brown is an athletic, intense defender who currently lacks the requisite skills to score consistently. Both have promising futures in the NBA , and they’ve already begun getting their abilities to mesh together in Summer League.
Coach Stevens will regularly feature lineups with three, and potentially all four of these players on the floor together. While the point guard position will be in the capable hands of Thomas, Marcus Smart (also a trade candidate to make room for Hayward), Avery Bradley (ditto), and Terry Rozier, the four remaining positions will be a playground for the Celtics’ new athletic talents. Yes, even at center — Al Horford and Croatian rookie Ante Zizic are the only big men currently on Boston’s roster. There will be times, although likely sparse, when neither of them are in the game.
Adding to Boston’s anticipated versatility are prospects Semi Ojuleye and Guerschon Yabusele. Neither will see much playing time this season, especially not in the playoffs, but both represent intriguing development projects for Stevens and his staff. Ojuleye, a 22-year-old rookie from SMU, is a 6'7" power forward with the ability to shoot, dribble, and defend. He was selected in the second round of this year’s draft, meaning his contract with the Celtics isn’t guaranteed. But he’ll stick around, and at the very worst, he’ll get plenty of minutes to hone his game with the Maine Red Claws.
Yabusele will likely be in the same boat, if he isn’t stashed back overseas for another season. From the moment he was drafted 16th overall in 2016, the title of “French Draymond” has generated plenty of intrigue toward the 21-year-old. It’s as easy a comparison to make as it is unfair to Yabusele, a 6'8" forward with the ability to stretch the floor, defend wings, and play center in a small lineup. Seeing him make plays like this only makes his abilities more intriguing:
Ojeleye and Yabusele are a different breed of young talent than Tatum and Brown. The latter are blue chip prospects who will immediately average 20 minutes a game on a playoff team. The former are low-risk, high-reward experiments who could become valuable assets in Stevens’ system just as easily as they could bust. It will take significantly more playing time and maturation before their fates with the team are decided.
Granted, this current Celtics regime won’t win the championship in 2018. Forget about LeBron James and the Cavaliers; the Warriors just made a mockery of the playoffs and show no signs of regression in the foreseaeble future.
But Golden State’s run has to come to an end at some point, and when it does, the Celtics will be there. Not all of the six aforementioned players will still be with the team at that point, but they will undoubtedly be replaced by others who bring a similar impact. Maybe Michael Porter Jr. of Missouri or Luka Dončić of Real Madrid will be on the team at that point; Ainge has amassed more premier draft picks to take them with than virtually anyone. Maybe those picks get used to acquire a proven superstar like Anthony Davis of the Pelicans, who would bring the coveted versatility and athleticism of a wing to the center position.
The future will be what the Celtics make of it. For now, though, they’re biding their time, slowly getting better, and watching Golden State rip through the NBA like a hot knife through butter.
And you’d better believe they’re taking notes.